Barcelona W 7–1 Bayern Munich W: Result & Stats

Barcelona W

FT

7 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Bayern Munich W

C. Pina 90', 88'

E. Pajor 56', 12'

S. Paralluelo 45'

E. Brugts 27'

A. Putellas 3'

K. Buhl 32'

10/7/2025

UEFA Champions League Women · League Stage - 1Estadi Johan Cruyff

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barcelona W70%

×Draw16%

Bayern Munich W14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barcelona WExpected goals in this matchBayern Munich W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.94

1.29

Barcelona W

2.94

Bayern Munich W

1.29

Barcelona W creates 128% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 27 away

4.17

creates per match

1.96

0.63

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Barcelona W

4.17

Bayern Munich W

1.96

allows per match

Barcelona W

0.63

Bayern Munich W

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barcelona W+0.00on par

Bayern Munich W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona W ↓

Bayern Munich W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 84% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Barcelona W or draw

86%

Barcelona W or Bayern Munich W

84%

Draw or Bayern Munich W

30%

Winning margin

Barcelona W wins by 2+

50%

Bayern Munich W wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Barcelona W 1+ goals

95%

Barcelona W 2+ goals

79%

Barcelona W 3+ goals

55%

Bayern Munich W 1+ goals

72%

Bayern Munich W 2+ goals

37%

Bayern Munich W 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Barcelona W (draw refunded)

83%

Bayern Munich W (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona W at home — creates 4.17, concedes 0.63 · 35 matches

Bayern Munich W away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.70 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona W attack 4.17 + Bayern Munich W defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 2.94

Bayern Munich W attack 1.96 + Barcelona W defence 0.63 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Barcelona W scores more

70%

level

16%

Bayern Munich W scores more

14%

Barcelona W at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Barcelona W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

E. Brugts

Barcelona W · D

9.9

Match Events

3'

A. Putellas

12'

E. Pajor

27'

E. Brugts↳ A. Putellas

29'

Georgia Stanway

32'

K. Buhl↳ F. Kett

41'

K. Naschenweng← C. Simon

45'

S. Paralluelo↳ E. Brugts

55'

C. Pina← S. Paralluelo

56'

E. Pajor↳ A. Putellas

62'

G. Viggosdottir← S. Ballisager

62'

L. Dallmann← M. Tanikawa

62'

A. Sehitler← P. Harder

72'

Irene ParedesGoal cancelled

73'

K. Nazareth← E. Pajor

73'

V. Lopez← C. Graham

75'

N. Padilla← L. Schuller

81'

S. Schertenleib← A. Bonmati

81'

C. Serrajordi← A. Putellas

88'

C. Pina↳ V. Lopez

90'

C. Pina↳ E. Brugts

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaBayern

Overview

68%Possession32%

21Total Shots8

8Corners1

5Fouls6

Shots

21Total Shots8

12On Target2

7Off Target3

2Blocked3

15Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

68%Possession32%

675Total Passes312

612Accurate Passes245

91%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

5Fouls6

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3