Bate Borisov 2–1 Belshina: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Belshina

2/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Bate Borisov67%

×Draw20%

Belshina13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.03

0.76

Bate Borisov

2.03

Belshina

0.76

Bate Borisov creates 167% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.86

creates per match

0.80

0.71

allows per match

2.20

creates per match

Bate Borisov

1.86

Belshina

0.80

allows per match

Bate Borisov

0.71

Belshina

2.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

87%

Bate Borisov or Belshina

80%

Draw or Belshina

33%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

42%

Belshina wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

87%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

60%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

33%

Belshina 1+ goals

53%

Belshina 2+ goals

18%

Belshina 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

84%

Belshina (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.86, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

Belshina away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.86 + Belshina defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.03

Belshina attack 0.80 + Bate Borisov defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

67%

level

20%

Belshina scores more

13%

Bate Borisov at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff