Bate Borisov 2–1 Belshina: Result & Stats

Bate Borisov

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Belshina

V. Bocherov 37'

D. Laptev 3'

I. Sen 39'

9/22/2023

Premier League · Round 22Borisov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Bate Borisov57%

×Draw22%

Belshina21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.97

1.10

Bate Borisov

1.97

Belshina

1.10

Bate Borisov creates 79% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 51 away

1.81

creates per match

1.08

1.12

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Bate Borisov

1.81

Belshina

1.08

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.12

Belshina

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

79%

Bate Borisov or Belshina

78%

Draw or Belshina

43%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

34%

Belshina wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

86%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

58%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

31%

Belshina 1+ goals

67%

Belshina 2+ goals

30%

Belshina 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

73%

Belshina (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.12 · 113 matches

Belshina away — creates 1.08, concedes 2.12 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 1.81 + Belshina defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.97

Belshina attack 1.08 + Bate Borisov defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

57%

level

22%

Belshina scores more

21%

Bate Borisov at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

24'

27'

32'

37'

39'

65'

66'

67'

S. Volkov← K. Chernook

67'

A. Kontsevoy← D. Antilevskiy

68'

S. Lomako← N. Sokolovskiy

75'

A. Shestyuk← D. Laptev

75'

D. Velisevich← Y. Djaha

78'

F. Akyam← M. Samotoy

80'

I. Vasilevich← D. Podstrelov

Statistics

BateBelshina

Overview

7Corners3

Discipline

2Yellow Cards3

Premier League: Bate Borisov 2–1 Belshina

Bate Borisov beat Belshina 2-1 in Premier League on September 22, 2023.

Goals: D. Laptev (3'), V. Bocherov (37'), I. Sen (39').

The match was played at Borisov Arena in Borisov.

Bate Borisov vs Belshina — Premier League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Statistics

Premier League: Bate Borisov 2–1 Belshina