Bate Borisov 5–0 Belshina: Result & Stats | Coppa

Bate Borisov

FT

5 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Belshina

S. Volkov 84'

S. Bane 82'

D. Laptev 56', 51', 49'

3/11/2023

Coppa · Quarter-finalsStadyen Dynama-Juni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bate Borisov46%

×Draw20%

Belshina34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Bate BorisovExpected goals in this matchBelshina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.95

Bate Borisov

2.26

Belshina

1.95

Bate Borisov creates 16% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 9 away

2.41

creates per match

2.89

1.00

allows per match

2.11

creates per match

Bate Borisov

2.41

Belshina

2.89

allows per match

Bate Borisov

1.00

Belshina

2.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Bate Borisov+0.00on par

Belshina+0.00on par

Total goals

Over79
Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes77
No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bate Borisov ↓

Belshina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

79%21%3.5

60%40%4.5

40%60%

Double chance

Bate Borisov or draw

66%

Bate Borisov or Belshina

80%

Draw or Belshina

54%

Winning margin

Bate Borisov wins by 2+

27%

Belshina wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Bate Borisov 1+ goals

89%

Bate Borisov 2+ goals

66%

Bate Borisov 3+ goals

39%

Belshina 1+ goals

86%

Belshina 2+ goals

58%

Belshina 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Bate Borisov (draw refunded)

57%

Belshina (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

70%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bate Borisov at home — creates 2.41, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

Belshina away — creates 2.89, concedes 2.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bate Borisov attack 2.41 + Belshina defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 2.26

Belshina attack 2.89 + Bate Borisov defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Bate Borisov scores more

46%

level

20%

Belshina scores more

34%

Bate Borisov at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Bate Borisov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

41'

49'

51'

56'

61'

K. Malykh← D. Denisenko

62'

A. Shestyuk← D. Laptev

62'

S. Bane← Z. Volkov

63'

S. Islamović← V. Gromyko

72'

T. Sharkovskiy← D. Grechikho

75'

E. Pinchuk← I. Fofana

82'

V. Kovalev← V. Bolotnikov

82'

S. Bane

84'

S. Volkov

90+1'

N. Kozlov← I. Guzov

Bate

Belshina

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽3

▼

Laptev

Vasilevic

Manager: K. Alshevskiy

62'▲A. Shestyuk←▼D. Laptev

62'▲S. Bane←▼Z. Volkov

63'▲S. Islamović←▼V. Gromyko

72'▲T. Sharkovskiy←▼D. Grechikho

Bate Borisov substitutes

ShestyukBaneIslamovićSharkovskiyKudravetsFrantsuzovSvidinskiy

Manager: A. Rybak

61'▲K. Malykh←▼D. Denisenko

75'▲E. Pinchuk←▼I. Fofana

82'▲V. Kovalev←▼V. Bolotnikov

90+1'▲N. Kozlov←▼I. Guzov

Belshina substitutes

MalykhPinchukKovalevKozlovKharitonovich

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs Belshina

Bate Borisov beat Belshina 5-0 in Coppa on March 11, 2023.

Goals: D. Laptev (49', 51', 56'), S. Bane (82'), S. Volkov (84').

The match was played at Stadyen Dynama-Juni in Minsk.

Bate Borisov vs Belshina — Coppa 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Bate Borisov vs Belshina