Barrow 3–0 Cheltenham: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Cheltenham

H. Biggins 74'

L. James 52'

S. Quigley 43' (pen)

12/19/2020

League Two · Round 19Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Barrow34%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

1.19

Barrow

1.11

Cheltenham

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

0.81

creates per match

1.01

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Barrow

0.81

Cheltenham

1.01

allows per match

Barrow

1.38

Cheltenham

1.41

+0.05on par

finishing

+0.09on par

finishing

Barrow+0.05on par

Cheltenham+0.09on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

62%

Barrow or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

66%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

14%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

67%

Barrow 2+ goals

30%

Barrow 3+ goals

10%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

70%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

33%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

47%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 0.81, concedes 1.38 · 7 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.01, concedes 1.41 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 0.81 + Cheltenham defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.11

Cheltenham attack 1.01 + Barrow defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Barrow scores more

34%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

38%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Dixon

Barrow · G

7.5

Match Events

19'

Chris Clements

41'

William Boyle

43'

S. QuigleyPenalty

46'

F. Azaz← T. Sang

46'

G. Lloyd← A. May

46'

E. Chapman← C. Clements

52'

59'

73'

74'

76'

78'

L. Freestone← C. Hussey

80'

S. Wilson← J. Kay

85'

D. Angus← S. Quigley

85'

J. Taylor← H. Biggins

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowCheltenham

Overview

37%Possession63%

13Total Shots10

4Corners4

6Fouls9

Shots

13Total Shots10

8On Target2

5Off Target4

0Blocked4

7Inside Box6

6Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

277Total Passes461

175Accurate Passes331

63%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

6Fouls9

1Yellow Cards3

1Offsides0