Barracas Central 0–2 Atletico Tucuman

Barracas Central

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Tucuman

G. Peruzzi 90'

L. Rodríguez 5' (pen)

7/29/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 8Estadio Tomás Adolfo Ducó

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Barracas Central33%

×Draw25%

Atletico Tucuman42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barracas CentralExpected goals in this matchAtletico Tucuman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.51

Barracas Central

1.31

Atletico Tucuman

1.51

Atletico Tucuman creates 15% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

1.20

creates per match

1.45

1.57

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

Barracas Central

1.20

Atletico Tucuman

1.45

allows per match

Barracas Central

1.57

Atletico Tucuman

1.42

-0.63scores less than expected

finishing

-0.85scores less than expected

finishing

Barracas Central-0.63scores less

Atletico Tucuman-0.85scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Atletico Tucuman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw

58%

Barracas Central or Atletico Tucuman

75%

Draw or Atletico Tucuman

67%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+

14%

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals

73%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

38%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

14%

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals

78%

Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals

44%

Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

44%

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.57 · 7 matches

Atletico Tucuman away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.42 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 1.20 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.31

Atletico Tucuman attack 1.45 + Barracas Central defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barracas Central scores more

33%

level

25%

Atletico Tucuman scores more

42%

Atletico Tucuman at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Pereyra

Atletico Tucuman · M

8.5

Match Events

3'

Juan InfantePenalty confirmed

5'

L. RodríguezPenalty

46'

A. Domínguez← M. Duarte

57'

A. Cantero← M. Zalazar

58'

A. Juárez← M. Iacobellis

58'

S. Coronel← S. Rosané

64'

R. Melo← G. Acosta

64'

M. Estigarribia← L. Rodríguez

64'

F. Bonfiglio← M. Bajamich

65'

D. Miloc← R. Herrera

68'

G. Ferrari← R. Tesuri

72'

Tomás Durso

78'

G. Peruzzi← M. Brandán

86'

Gonzalo Goñi

90'

G. Peruzzi↳ J. Pereyra

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarracasAtletico

Overview

60%Possession40%

14Total Shots16

0.93Expected Goals (xG)2.66

3Corners1

6Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots16

1On Target5

10Off Target9

3Blocked2

6Inside Box10

8Outside Box6

Passing

60%Possession40%

508Total Passes341

392Accurate Passes236

77%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0.03Goals Prevented0.03

Discipline

6Fouls17

1Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3