Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 72+ matches
Atletico Tucuman45%
Barracas Central27%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Atletico Tucuman creates 39% more chances
Season form · 99 home / 72 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under60
- Over40
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Atletico Tucuman ↓
Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 99 matches
Barracas Central away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.21 · 72 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Atletico Tucuman attack 1.43 + Barracas Central defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.32
Barracas Central attack 0.86 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 45%?"
Atletico Tucuman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 45% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Atletico Tucuman host Barracas Central on Sunday, 19 March 2023 at 00:30. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2020/2021 season.
Liga Profesional Argentina: Atletico Tucuman 1–1 Barracas Central
Atletico Tucuman and Barracas Central drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 19, 2023.
Goals: M. Estigarribia (25'), F. Mater (81').
Barracas Central controlled possession (53%) and registered 13 shots to 16.
The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.