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Atletico Tucuman vs Barracas Central — League #1032 2026

Atletico Tucuman
Atletico Tucuman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
R. Carrera 46'
9/16/2023League #1032League #1032 · Round 4Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Atletico Tucuman39%
×Draw29%
Barracas Central32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atletico Tucuman
1.15
Barracas Central
1.02

Atletico Tucuman creates 13% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Atletico Tucuman
0.63
Barracas Central
0.78

allows per match

Atletico Tucuman
1.25
Barracas Central
1.67

finishing

Atletico Tucuman+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Tucuman ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Atletico Tucuman or draw
68%
Atletico Tucuman or Barracas Central
71%
Draw or Barracas Central
61%

Winning margin

Atletico Tucuman wins by 2+
16%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Atletico Tucuman 1+ goals
68%
Atletico Tucuman 2+ goals
32%
Atletico Tucuman 3+ goals
11%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
64%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
27%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Tucuman (draw refunded)
55%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Tucuman at home — creates 0.63, concedes 1.25 · 8 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Tucuman attack 0.63 + Barracas Central defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.15

Barracas Central attack 0.78 + Atletico Tucuman defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Atletico Tucuman scores more
39%
level
29%
Barracas Central scores more
32%

Atletico Tucuman at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Atletico Tucuman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23
R. CarreraAtletico TucumanAtletico Tucuman · M
7.9

Match Events

22'
F. Frías← L. Colitto
26'
David Zalazar
31'
Matías Orihuela
45+2'
Ramiro Carrera
46'
S. Rosané← D. Zalazar
46'
Carlos Arce← R. Herrera
46'
R. Carrera
54'
A. Cantero← F. Prado
72'
R. Tesuri← R. Carrera
76'
R. Ruíz Rodríguez← J. Giani
76'
J. Susvielles← F. Frías
82'
Guillermo Acosta
85'
B. Kociubinski← G. Acosta
85'
A. Rodríguez← I. Maestro Puch
85'
F. Flores← H. De La Fuente
90+4'
Axel Rodriguez
90'
Nicolás Romero
90+7'
Ramiro Ruiz Rodríguez
90+6'
Ramiro Ruiz RodríguezCard upgrade

Possession

38%Atletico

Shots

9Atletico

Pass accuracy

47%Atletico

Statistics

AtleticoBarracas
Overview
38%Possession62%
9Total Shots8
4Corners2
19Fouls6
Shots
9Total Shots8
5On Target1
3Off Target6
1Blocked1
4Inside Box6
5Outside Box2
Passing
38%Possession62%
271Total Passes457
196Accurate Passes369
72%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
1Saves4
Discipline
19Fouls6
5Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
5Offsides1

League #1032: Atletico Tucuman 1–0 Barracas Central

Atletico Tucuman beat Barracas Central 1-0 in League #1032 on September 16, 2023.

Goals: R. Carrera (46').

Barracas Central controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Presidente José Fierro in San Miguel de Tucumán, Provincia de Tucumán.