Barracas Central 2–0 Argentinos JRS: Result & Stats

Barracas Central

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Argentinos JRS

F. Bruera 86', 4'

11/1/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 14Claudio Fabian Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Barracas Central33%

×Draw30%

Argentinos JRS37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Barracas CentralExpected goals in this matchArgentinos JRS

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.11

Barracas Central

1.04

Argentinos JRS

1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 12 away

0.98

creates per match

1.00

1.22

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

Barracas Central

0.98

Argentinos JRS

1.00

allows per match

Barracas Central

1.22

Argentinos JRS

1.11

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

-0.58scores less than expected

finishing

Barracas Central-0.26scores less

Argentinos JRS-0.58scores less

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barracas Central ↓

Argentinos JRS →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Barracas Central or draw

63%

Barracas Central or Argentinos JRS

70%

Draw or Argentinos JRS

67%

Winning margin

Barracas Central wins by 2+

13%

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Barracas Central 1+ goals

65%

Barracas Central 2+ goals

28%

Barracas Central 3+ goals

9%

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals

67%

Argentinos JRS 2+ goals

30%

Argentinos JRS 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Barracas Central (draw refunded)

47%

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barracas Central at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

Argentinos JRS away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.11 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barracas Central attack 0.98 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.04

Argentinos JRS attack 1.00 + Barracas Central defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Barracas Central scores more

33%

level

30%

Argentinos JRS scores more

37%

Argentinos JRS at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

R. Insua

Barracas Central · M

8.9

Match Events

4'

F. Bruera↳ S. Rosane

18'

Fernando Tobio

23'

Claudio BravoCard upgrade

25'

40'

46'

48'

56'

67'

67'

74'

75'

79'

80'

86'

88'

Facundo BrueraGoal confirmed

90+3'

Javier Ruiz

90+6'

I. A. Guaraz←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarracasArgentinos

Overview

35%Possession65%

5Total Shots15

0.72Expected Goals (xG)0.71

3Corners7

14Fouls5

Shots

5Total Shots15

3On Target6

2Off Target2

0Blocked7

4Inside Box7

1Outside Box8

Passing

35%Possession65%

282Total Passes525

212Accurate Passes453

75%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

-0.39Goals Prevented-0.39

Discipline

14Fouls5

5Yellow Cards0

0Red Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Barracas Central vs Argentinos JRS

Barracas Central beat Argentinos JRS 2-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 1, 2025.

Goals: F. Bruera (4', 86').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (65%) and registered 15 shots to 5.

The match was played at Claudio Fabian Tapia in Barracas.

Barracas Central vs Argentinos JRS — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barracas Central vs Argentinos JRS