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Argentinos JRS vs Barracas Central — League #1032 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 1
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
M. Romero 40'
J. Herrera 21'
A. Lescano 18'
N. Tolosa 90+2'
N. Demartini 68'
M. Zalazar 1'
4/15/2024League #1032League #1032 · 1st Phase - 14Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Argentinos JRS61%
×Draw20%
Barracas Central20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
2.23
Barracas Central
1.19

Argentinos JRS creates 87% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 9 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
2.80
Barracas Central
0.78

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
1.60
Barracas Central
1.67

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.00on par
Barracas Central+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
80%
Argentinos JRS or Barracas Central
80%
Draw or Barracas Central
39%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
38%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
89%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
65%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
38%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
70%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
33%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
76%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 2.80 + Barracas Central defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 2.23

Barracas Central attack 0.78 + Argentinos JRS defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
61%
level
20%
Barracas Central scores more
20%

Argentinos JRS at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
J. HerreraArgentinos JRSArgentinos JRS · F
9.2

Match Events

1'
M. Zalazar↳ S. Rosané
18'
A. Lescano↳ M. Romero
21'
J. Herrera↳ A. Lescano
40'
M. Romero↳ J. Herrera
41'
Maximiliano RomeroGoal confirmed
46'
E. Viveros← A. Lescano
46'
N. Demartini← A. Domínguez
57'
M. Iacobellis← L. Brochero
62'
S. Montiel← N. Oroz
62'
G. Verón← M. Romero
68'
N. Demartini
72'
Franco Moyano
78'
D. Juárez← M. Zalazar
80'
D. Batallini← R. Vega
82'
L. Heredia← J. Herrera
87'
R. Ábila← A. Cantero
87'
N. Tolosa← R. Insúa
90+2'
N. Tolosa↳ F. Mater

Possession

60%Argentinos

Shots

13Argentinos

Pass accuracy

52%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosBarracas
Overview
60%Possession40%
13Total Shots11
7Corners3
13Fouls13
Shots
13Total Shots11
6On Target6
5Off Target2
2Blocked3
6Inside Box7
7Outside Box4
Passing
60%Possession40%
467Total Passes305
386Accurate Passes231
83%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Argentinos JRS vs Barracas Central

Argentinos JRS and Barracas Central drew 3-3 in League #1032 on April 15, 2024.

Goals: M. Zalazar (1'), A. Lescano (18'), J. Herrera (21'), M. Romero (40'), N. Demartini (68'), N. Tolosa (90+2').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (60%) and registered 13 shots to 11.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.