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Argentinos JRS vs Barracas Central — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Argentinos JRS
Argentinos JRS
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barracas Central
Barracas Central
M. Duarte 42'
11/26/2024Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 24Estadio Diego Armando Maradona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

Argentinos JRS48%
×Draw29%
Barracas Central22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Argentinos JRS
1.26
Barracas Central
0.75

Argentinos JRS creates 68% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Argentinos JRS
1.08
Barracas Central
0.81

allows per match

Argentinos JRS
0.68
Barracas Central
1.44

finishing

Argentinos JRS+0.23scores more
Barracas Central-0.02on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Argentinos JRS ↓

Barracas Central →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Argentinos JRS or draw
78%
Argentinos JRS or Barracas Central
71%
Draw or Barracas Central
52%

Winning margin

Argentinos JRS wins by 2+
22%
Barracas Central wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Argentinos JRS 1+ goals
72%
Argentinos JRS 2+ goals
36%
Argentinos JRS 3+ goals
13%
Barracas Central 1+ goals
53%
Barracas Central 2+ goals
17%
Barracas Central 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Argentinos JRS (draw refunded)
69%
Barracas Central (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Argentinos JRS at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.68 · 13 matches

Barracas Central away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.44 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Argentinos JRS attack 1.08 + Barracas Central defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.26

Barracas Central attack 0.81 + Argentinos JRS defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Argentinos JRS scores more
48%
level
29%
Barracas Central scores more
22%

Argentinos JRS at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Argentinos JRS will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30
M. MiñoBarracas CentralBarracas Central · G
7.7

Match Events

23'
N. Capraro
42'
M. Duarte↳ I. Tapia
60'
F. Bruera
61'
L. Heredia← L. Gómez
64'
K. Coronel
68'
C. Ferreira
75'
J. Herrera
77'
J. Ruiz← I. Tapia
82'
E. Viveros← J. Herrera
82'
N. Cordero← C. Ferreira
82'
J. Candia← M. Duarte
83'
D. Rodriguez
85'
D. Miloc
90+2'
A. Lescano

Possession

58%Argentinos

Shots

20Argentinos

Pass accuracy

53%Argentinos

Statistics

ArgentinosBarracas
Overview
58%Possession42%
20Total Shots9
1.30Expected Goals (xG)0.26
11Corners1
12Fouls13
Shots
20Total Shots9
5On Target3
8Off Target2
7Blocked4
9Inside Box2
11Outside Box7
Passing
58%Possession42%
369Total Passes274
297Accurate Passes194
80%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
2Saves5
0.44Goals Prevented0.44
Discipline
12Fouls13
4Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards0
3Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Argentinos JRS 0–1 Barracas Central

Barracas Central beat Argentinos JRS 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 26, 2024.

Goals: M. Duarte (42').

Argentinos JRS controlled possession (58%) and registered 20 shots to 9.

The match was played at Estadio Diego Armando Maradona in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.