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Barnsley vs Peterborough — League One 2025

Barnsley
Barnsley
Preview
14:00
Peterborough
Peterborough
4/10/2027League OneLeague One · Round 40Oakwell
Big match
42%
Barnsley
model favours
42%24%34%

91% of Barnsley’s matches go over 2.5 goals

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
57%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Barnsley42%
×Draw24%
Peterborough34%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnsley
1.57
Peterborough
1.39

Barnsley creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 33 away

creates per match

Barnsley
1.63
Peterborough
1.30

allows per match

Barnsley
1.48
Peterborough
1.52

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par
Peterborough+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Peterborough →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw
66%
Barnsley or Peterborough
76%
Draw or Peterborough
58%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+
21%
Peterborough wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals
79%
Barnsley 2+ goals
46%
Barnsley 3+ goals
21%
Peterborough 1+ goals
75%
Peterborough 2+ goals
40%
Peterborough 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)
55%
Peterborough (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.48 · 27 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.52 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.63 + Peterborough defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.57

Peterborough attack 1.30 + Barnsley defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Barnsley scores more
42%
level
24%
Peterborough scores more
34%

Barnsley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Barnsley score first in only 18% of matches
  • Both teams score in 82% of Barnsley’s matches
  • Barnsley have won 4 of the last 5 meetings
  • Peterborough fall short of their xG (1.2 vs 1.6 expected)
  • Barnsley fall short of their xG (1.3 vs 1.6 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Similar styles
Barnsley
Balanced
Peterborough
Balanced
51%PossessionBiggest gap57%
74%Pass accuracy79%
12.4Shots13.7
1.61xG1.55
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnsleyPeterborough

Head-to-head

5 previous meetings

4
Barnsley
1
Draws
0
Peterborough
Avg goals: 2.2BTTS: 60%
2–11–01–01–13–1

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnsley
LWLWL
Peterborough
LDLDL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnsley vs Peterborough — Match Preview

Barnsley face Peterborough on April 10, 2027 in this League One fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Barnsley host Peterborough at Oakwell.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.