Barnsley 0–2 Peterborough: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Peterborough

J. Taylor 76'

J. Clarke-Harris 6'

5/7/2023

League One · Round 46Oakwell

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Barnsley37%

×Draw24%

Peterborough39%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchPeterborough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.56

Barnsley

1.52

Peterborough

1.56

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

1.11

creates per match

1.24

1.88

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Barnsley

1.11

Peterborough

1.24

allows per match

Barnsley

1.88

Peterborough

1.94

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.39scores more

Peterborough-0.07on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Peterborough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

61%

Barnsley or Peterborough

76%

Draw or Peterborough

63%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

18%

Peterborough wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

78%

Barnsley 2+ goals

45%

Barnsley 3+ goals

20%

Peterborough 1+ goals

79%

Peterborough 2+ goals

46%

Peterborough 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

49%

Peterborough (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.88 · 6 matches

Peterborough away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.94 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.11 + Peterborough defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.52

Peterborough attack 1.24 + Barnsley defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Barnsley scores more

37%

level

24%

Peterborough scores more

39%

Peterborough at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Peterborough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

16

H. Burrows

Peterborough · D

7.9

Match Events

6'

J. Clarke-Harris↳ H. Burrows

46'

M. Watters← J. Norwood

51'

63'

67'

67'

67'

76'

J. Taylor↳ H. Burrows

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarnsleyPeterborough

Overview

50%Possession50%

14Total Shots10

10Corners3

10Fouls15

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target5

7Off Target2

5Blocked3

11Inside Box7

3Outside Box3

Passing

50%Possession50%

433Total Passes444

344Accurate Passes356

79%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls15

0Yellow Cards1

1Offsides3

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Peterborough

Peterborough beat Barnsley 2-0 in League One on May 7, 2023.

Goals: J. Clarke-Harris (6'), J. Taylor (76').

Barnsley controlled possession (50%) and registered 14 shots to 10.

The match was played at Oakwell in Barnsley, South Yorkshire.

Barnsley vs Peterborough — League One 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Barnsley vs Peterborough