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Barnet vs Gillingham — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
Gillingham
Gillingham
4/3/2027League TwoLeague Two · Round 39The Hive Stadium
Big match
54%
Barnet
model favours
54%22%24%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
59%
over 2.5 goals
59%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Barnet54%
×Draw22%
Gillingham24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.90
Gillingham
1.18

Barnet creates 61% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 11 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Gillingham
1.05

allows per match

Barnet
1.31
Gillingham
1.68

finishing

Barnet-0.01on par
Gillingham-0.32scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Gillingham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
76%
Barnet or Gillingham
78%
Draw or Gillingham
46%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
31%
Gillingham wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
85%
Barnet 2+ goals
56%
Barnet 3+ goals
29%
Gillingham 1+ goals
69%
Gillingham 2+ goals
33%
Gillingham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
70%
Gillingham (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Gillingham away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.68 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Gillingham defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.90

Gillingham attack 1.05 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Barnet scores more
54%
level
22%
Gillingham scores more
24%

Barnet at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Both teams scored in 6 of the last 7 meetings
  • Their last 7 meetings averaged 3.9 goals
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Gillingham
Balanced
55%Possession47%
69%Pass accuracy64%
13.5Shots11.2
1.74xGBiggest gap1.24
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetGillingham

Head-to-head

7 previous meetings

3
Barnet
2
Draws
2
Gillingham
Avg goals: 3.9BTTS: 86%
6–21–11–01–31–3

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
Gillingham
WLWWL

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Gillingham (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Gillingham. Match starts April 3, 2027. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Gillingham at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.