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Barnet vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
Preview
14:00
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
9/12/2026League TwoLeague Two · Round 6The Hive Stadium
Big match
56%
Barnet
model favours
56%23%21%

Barnet are unbeaten in 5 straight

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
55%
over 2.5 goals
54%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Barnet56%
×Draw23%
Accrington ST21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.83
Accrington ST
1.04

Barnet creates 76% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 9 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Accrington ST
0.79

allows per match

Barnet
1.28
Accrington ST
1.55

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less
Accrington ST-0.23scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
79%
Barnet or Accrington ST
77%
Draw or Accrington ST
44%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
32%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
84%
Barnet 2+ goals
54%
Barnet 3+ goals
28%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
65%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
28%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
72%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.55 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.83

Accrington ST attack 0.79 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Barnet scores more
56%
level
23%
Accrington ST scores more
21%

Barnet at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Both teams score in 80% of Barnet’s matches
  • Barnet score first in only 30% of matches
  • Barnet have scored in 7 games running
  • Accrington ST outscore their xG (1.3 vs 0.9 expected)
  • 70% of Barnet’s matches go over 2.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles
Barnet
Possession-dominant
Accrington ST
Balanced
55%Possession47%
68%Pass accuracy62%
13.6Shots11.4
1.72xGBiggest gap0.89
Pass acc.ShotsxGBox shareShot acc.Defense
BarnetAccrington ST

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4
Barnet
3
Draws
3
Accrington ST
Avg goals: 2.7BTTS: 50%
1–02–00–11–11–4

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form
Barnet
DDWWW
ST
WDLDD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Barnet face Accrington ST (League Two)

League Two returns with Barnet hosting Accrington ST. Match starts September 12, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Barnet host Accrington ST at The Hive Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.