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Accrington ST vs Barnet — League Two 2018

Accrington ST
Accrington ST
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Barnet
Barnet
K. Jackson 65'
B. Kee 59'
J. Clark 51'
S. McConville 35'
J. Campbell-Ryce 54'
10/28/2017League TwoLeague Two · Round 16The Crown Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Accrington ST32%
×Draw27%
Barnet41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Accrington ST
1.15
Barnet
1.33

Barnet creates 16% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 14 away

creates per match

Accrington ST
0.94
Barnet
1.40

allows per match

Accrington ST
1.27
Barnet
1.36

finishing

Accrington ST+0.24scores more
Barnet+0.03on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Accrington ST ↓

Barnet →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Accrington ST or draw
59%
Accrington ST or Barnet
73%
Draw or Barnet
68%

Winning margin

Accrington ST wins by 2+
13%
Barnet wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Accrington ST 1+ goals
68%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
32%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
11%
Barnet 1+ goals
74%
Barnet 2+ goals
38%
Barnet 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Accrington ST (draw refunded)
44%
Barnet (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Accrington ST at home — creates 0.94, concedes 1.27 · 11 matches

Barnet away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.36 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Accrington ST attack 0.94 + Barnet defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.15

Barnet attack 1.40 + Accrington ST defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Accrington ST scores more
32%
level
27%
Barnet scores more
41%

Barnet at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

32'
Michael Nelson
35'
S. McConville↳ B. Kee
51'
J. Clark↳ B. Kee
54'
D. Tutonda← A. Blackman
54'
J. Campbell-Ryce↳ J. Taylor
59'
B. Kee↳ J. Clark
65'
K. Jackson
67'
J. Akpa Akpro← A. Nicholls
80'
E. Mason-Clark← S. Akinola
83'
M. Wilks← B. Kee
84'
M. Leacock-McLeod← S. McConville
90'
L. Nolan← S. Brown

Possession

57%Accrington

Shots

18Accrington

Statistics

AccringtonBarnet
Overview
57%Possession43%
18Total Shots11
14Corners4
10Fouls10
Shots
18Total Shots11
8On Target4
8Off Target6
2Blocked1
12Inside Box6
6Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
Discipline
10Fouls10
0Yellow Cards1
0Red Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Accrington ST vs Barnet

Accrington ST beat Barnet 4-1 in League Two on October 28, 2017.

Goals: S. McConville (35'), J. Clark (51'), J. Campbell-Ryce (54'), B. Kee (59'), K. Jackson (65').

Accrington ST controlled possession (57%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at The Crown Ground in Accrington.