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Barnet vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Accrington ST
Accrington ST
R. Glover 78'
C. Stead 21'
10/4/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 11The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Barnet53%
×Draw24%
Accrington ST24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.71
Accrington ST
1.06

Barnet creates 61% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 8 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.12
Accrington ST
0.84

allows per match

Barnet
1.28
Accrington ST
1.29

finishing

Barnet-0.12scores less
Accrington ST-0.34scores less

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Accrington ST →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
76%
Barnet or Accrington ST
76%
Draw or Accrington ST
47%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
29%
Accrington ST wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
82%
Barnet 2+ goals
51%
Barnet 3+ goals
24%
Accrington ST 1+ goals
65%
Accrington ST 2+ goals
29%
Accrington ST 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
69%
Accrington ST (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.28 · 10 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Accrington ST attack 0.84 + Barnet defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Barnet scores more
53%
level
24%
Accrington ST scores more
24%

Barnet at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15
R. GloverBarnetBarnet · M
8.7

Match Events

21'
C. Stead
23'
Emmanuel Osadebe
53'
Devon Matthews
63'
Charlie Brown
65'
A. Hartigan← E. Osadebe
66'
L. Coyle← C. Brown
66'
P. Madden← J. Woods
67'
Benn Ward
71'
O. Hawkins← N. Tavares
78'
R. Glover↳ A. Senior
80'
B. Winterburn← L. Ndlovu
80'
O. Kensdale← R. Crichlow-Noble
85'
C. Grant← J. Bauress
85'
A. Henderson← I. Sinclair

Possession

52%Barnet

Shots

15Barnet

Pass accuracy

50%Barnet

Statistics

BarnetAccrington
Overview
52%Possession48%
15Total Shots15
4Corners4
9Fouls10
Shots
15Total Shots15
5On Target2
7Off Target7
3Blocked6
10Inside Box13
5Outside Box2
Passing
52%Possession48%
350Total Passes324
210Accurate Passes192
60%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls10
1Yellow Cards3
3Offsides2

League Two: Barnet 2–0 Accrington ST

Barnet beat Accrington ST 2-0 in League Two on October 4, 2025.

Goals: C. Stead (21'), R. Glover (78').

Barnet controlled possession (52%) and registered 15 shots to 15.

The match was played at The Hive Stadium in London.