Barnet 1–1 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

A. Nicholls 18'

B. Kee 68' (pen)

2/17/2018

League Two · Round 34The Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Barnet52%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.07

Barnet

1.71

Accrington ST

1.07

Barnet creates 60% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 8 away

2.12

creates per match

0.84

1.31

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

Barnet

2.12

Accrington ST

0.84

allows per match

Barnet

1.31

Accrington ST

1.29

-0.01on par

finishing

-0.34scores less than expected

finishing

Barnet-0.01on par

Accrington ST-0.34scores less

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

76%

Barnet or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

48%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

28%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

82%

Barnet 2+ goals

51%

Barnet 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

66%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

29%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

69%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.12, concedes 1.31 · 9 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.29 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.12 + Accrington ST defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.71

Accrington ST attack 0.84 + Barnet defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Barnet scores more

52%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

24%

Barnet at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

A. Nicholls↳ M. Vilhete

43'

Ryan Watson

46'

Érico Sousa← H. Rodgers

53'

Dan Sweeney

54'

S. Akinola← M. Vilhete

61'

Erico Sousa

68'

Ricardo Almeida Santos

68'

B. KeePenalty

69'

C. Clough← R. Brindley

80'

J. Nicholson← J. Taylor

85'

Simeon Akinola

90+1'

S. Brown← Érico Sousa

Barnet

Accrington

1

3

28

4

6

2

26

32

▼

Rodgers

29

⚽

7

10

21

2

▼

5

13

8

20

A

▼

Vilhete

7

Watson

12

▼

Taylor

9

Akinde

23

⚽

Nicholls

26

Sweeney

Manager: G. Westley

54'▲S. Akinola←▼M. Vilhete

69'▲C. Clough←▼R. Brindley

80'▲J. Nicholson←▼J. Taylor

Barnet substitutes

14Akinola4Clough41Nicholson11Coulthirst39Sule40Legg42Plavotic

Manager: J. Coleman

46'▲Érico Sousa←▼H. Rodgers

90+1'▲S. Brown←▼Érico Sousa

Accrington ST substitutes

17Sousa8Brown5Richards-Everton9Zanzala12Williams16Maxted19Rowan