Barcelona 2–0 Inter: Result & Stats

Barcelona

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Inter

Jordi Alba 83'

Rafinha 32'

10/24/2018

UEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 3Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Barcelona50%

×Draw22%

Inter28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarcelonaExpected goals in this matchInter

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.36

Barcelona

1.89

Inter

1.36

Barcelona creates 39% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 11 away

2.31

creates per match

1.65

1.07

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Barcelona

2.31

Inter

1.65

allows per match

Barcelona

1.07

Inter

1.47

+1.02scores more than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Barcelona+1.02scores more

Inter-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Inter →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw

72%

Barcelona or Inter

78%

Draw or Inter

50%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+

28%

Inter wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals

85%

Barcelona 2+ goals

56%

Barcelona 3+ goals

29%

Inter 1+ goals

74%

Inter 2+ goals

39%

Inter 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)

64%

Inter (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Inter away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.31 + Inter defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.89

Inter attack 1.65 + Barcelona defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barcelona scores more

50%

level

22%

Inter scores more

28%

Barcelona at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

18

Jordi Alba

Barcelona · D

8.1

Match Events

32'

Rafinha↳ L. Suárez

46'

M. Politano← A. Candreva

62'

Luis Suárez

63'

Lautaro Martínez← Borja Valero

72'

Nélson Semedo← Rafinha

73'

Marcelo Brozović

74'

Milan Škriniar

77'

K. Baldé← I. Perišić

78'

A. Vidal← Arthur

83'

Jordi Alba↳ I. Rakitić

85'

Lautaro Martínez

88'

Munir← Philippe Coutinho

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarcelonaInter

Overview

67%Possession33%

21Total Shots9

9Corners3

11Fouls22

Shots

21Total Shots9

11On Target2

5Off Target5

5Blocked2

13Inside Box5

8Outside Box4

Passing

67%Possession33%

764Total Passes360

691Accurate Passes277

90%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

2Saves9

Discipline

11Fouls22

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0