Inter 1–0 Barcelona: Result & Stats

Inter

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Barcelona

H. Çalhanoğlu 45+2'

10/4/2022

UEFA Champions League · Group C - 3Stadio Giuseppe Meazza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Inter49%

×Draw23%

Barcelona28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

InterExpected goals in this matchBarcelona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.35

Inter

1.84

Barcelona

1.35

Inter creates 36% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

2.09

creates per match

1.60

1.11

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Inter

2.09

Barcelona

1.60

allows per match

Inter

1.11

Barcelona

1.59

-0.69scores less than expected

finishing

+0.40scores more than expected

finishing

Inter-0.69scores less

Barcelona+0.40scores more

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Inter ↓

Barcelona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Inter or draw

72%

Inter or Barcelona

77%

Draw or Barcelona

51%

Winning margin

Inter wins by 2+

27%

Barcelona wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Inter 1+ goals

84%

Inter 2+ goals

55%

Inter 3+ goals

28%

Barcelona 1+ goals

74%

Barcelona 2+ goals

39%

Barcelona 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Inter (draw refunded)

63%

Barcelona (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Inter at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.11 · 5 matches

Barcelona away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.59 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Inter attack 2.09 + Barcelona defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.84

Barcelona attack 1.60 + Inter defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Inter scores more

49%

level

23%

Barcelona scores more

28%

Inter at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Inter will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

H. Çalhanoğlu

Inter · M

7.6

Match Events

23'

Nicolò Barella

24'

Nicolò BarellaPenalty cancelled

45+2'

H. Çalhanoğlu↳ F. Dimarco

56'

E. Džeko← J. Correa

58'

Piqué← A. Christensen

60'

Sergio Busquets

64'

Ansu Fati← Raphinha

64'

Alejandro Balde← Marcos Alonso

68'

PedriGoal cancelled

70'

Hakan Çalhanoğlu

76'

Lautaro Martínez

76'

Gavi

76'

D. Dumfries← F. Dimarco

77'

R. Gosens← M. Darmian

77'

F. Acerbi← S. de Vrij

83'

F. Kessié← Gavi

85'

K. Asllani← H. Çalhanoğlu

88'

Alessandro Bastoni

90+6'

André Onana

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

InterBarcelona

Overview

28%Possession72%

5Total Shots7

3Corners13

9Fouls9

Shots

5Total Shots7

2On Target2

1Off Target3

2Blocked2

2Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

28%Possession72%

286Total Passes706

225Accurate Passes642

79%Pass Accuracy91%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

9Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

7Offsides0