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Barcelona vs Inter — UEFA Champions League 2026

Barcelona
Barcelona
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Inter
Inter
10/12/2022UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group C - 4Spotify Camp Nou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Barcelona46%
×Draw23%
Inter31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona
1.77
Inter
1.41

Barcelona creates 26% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Barcelona
2.31
Inter
1.74

allows per match

Barcelona
1.07
Inter
1.22

finishing

Barcelona+1.02scores more
Inter-0.31scores less

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona ↓

Inter →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Barcelona or draw
69%
Barcelona or Inter
77%
Draw or Inter
54%

Winning margin

Barcelona wins by 2+
25%
Inter wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Barcelona 1+ goals
83%
Barcelona 2+ goals
53%
Barcelona 3+ goals
26%
Inter 1+ goals
76%
Inter 2+ goals
41%
Inter 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Barcelona (draw refunded)
60%
Inter (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona at home — creates 2.31, concedes 1.07 · 6 matches

Inter away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.22 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona attack 2.31 + Inter defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.77

Inter attack 1.74 + Barcelona defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Barcelona scores more
46%
level
23%
Inter scores more
31%

Barcelona at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Barcelona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Barcelona vs Inter

Barcelona and Inter drew 3-3 in UEFA Champions League on October 12, 2022.

The match was played at Spotify Camp Nou in Barcelona.