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Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC — League #301 2026

Baniyas SC
Baniyas SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
M. Camara 30'
Y. Niakate 19'
3/7/2026League #301League #301 · Round 16Baniyas Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Baniyas SC58%
×Draw24%
Al-Wasl FC18%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baniyas SC
1.67
Al-Wasl FC
0.80

Baniyas SC creates 109% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Baniyas SC
1.33
Al-Wasl FC
0.60

allows per match

Baniyas SC
1.00
Al-Wasl FC
2.00

finishing

Baniyas SC+0.00on par
Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baniyas SC ↓

Al-Wasl FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Baniyas SC or draw
82%
Baniyas SC or Al-Wasl FC
76%
Draw or Al-Wasl FC
42%

Winning margin

Baniyas SC wins by 2+
32%
Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Baniyas SC 1+ goals
81%
Baniyas SC 2+ goals
50%
Baniyas SC 3+ goals
23%
Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
55%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
19%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Baniyas SC (draw refunded)
77%
Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baniyas SC at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Al-Wasl FC away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baniyas SC attack 1.33 + Al-Wasl FC defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Al-Wasl FC attack 0.60 + Baniyas SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Baniyas SC scores more
58%
level
24%
Al-Wasl FC scores more
18%

Baniyas SC at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Baniyas SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

12
Y. NiakateBaniyas SCBaniyas SC · F
8.3

Match Events

19'
Y. Niakate↳ G. Saviour
30'
M. Camara↳ Y. Niakate
45+2'
Soufiane Bouftini
46'
B. Palacios Alzate← F. Lima
46'
Renato Junior← R. Tapia
55'
Mackenzie Hunt
69'
A. Koroma← N. Chadli
69'
M. Janeer← Hugo
71'
Brahian Palacios
77'
O. Shukurov← L. Wamba
80'
K. Hashemi← M. Hunt
81'
K. Al Hammadi← S. Al Noobi
84'
Rodrigo← P. Malheiro

Possession

29%Baniyas

Shots

7Baniyas

Pass accuracy

44%Baniyas

Statistics

BaniyasAl-Wasl
Overview
29%Possession71%
7Total Shots31
2Corners16
14Fouls13
Shots
7Total Shots31
4On Target5
2Off Target9
1Blocked17
5Inside Box17
2Outside Box14
Passing
29%Possession71%
235Total Passes536
157Accurate Passes465
67%Pass Accuracy87%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
14Fouls13
1Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Match Recap: Baniyas SC vs Al-Wasl FC

Baniyas SC beat Al-Wasl FC 2-0 in League #301 on March 7, 2026.

Goals: Y. Niakate (19'), M. Camara (30').

Al-Wasl FC controlled possession (71%) and registered 31 shots to 7.

The match was played at Baniyas Stadium in Abu Dhabi.