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Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC — League #301 2026

Al-Wasl FC
Al-Wasl FC
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Baniyas SC
Baniyas SC
João Pedro 87'
S. Sidibe 52'
João Victor 12' (OG)
L. Marković 60'
5/20/2025League #301League #301 · Round 25Zabeel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Al-Wasl FC79%
×Draw14%
Baniyas SC7%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Wasl FC
2.63
Baniyas SC
0.65

Al-Wasl FC creates 305% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 4 away

creates per match

Al-Wasl FC
2.00
Baniyas SC
0.50

allows per match

Al-Wasl FC
0.80
Baniyas SC
3.25

finishing

Al-Wasl FC+0.00on par
Baniyas SC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Wasl FC ↓

Baniyas SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–17%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–012%
3–18%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–08%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Al-Wasl FC or draw
93%
Al-Wasl FC or Baniyas SC
86%
Draw or Baniyas SC
21%

Winning margin

Al-Wasl FC wins by 2+
58%
Baniyas SC wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Al-Wasl FC 1+ goals
93%
Al-Wasl FC 2+ goals
73%
Al-Wasl FC 3+ goals
48%
Baniyas SC 1+ goals
48%
Baniyas SC 2+ goals
14%
Baniyas SC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Al-Wasl FC (draw refunded)
92%
Baniyas SC (draw refunded)
8%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Wasl FC at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

Baniyas SC away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Wasl FC attack 2.00 + Baniyas SC defence 3.25 → ÷2 → 2.63

Baniyas SC attack 0.50 + Al-Wasl FC defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 79%?"

Al-Wasl FC scores more
79%
level
14%
Baniyas SC scores more
7%

Al-Wasl FC at 79% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 79% does not mean "Al-Wasl FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
S. SidibeAl-Wasl FCAl-Wasl FC · M
8.5

Match Events

12'
João VictorOwn goal
28'
Hasan Almuharrami
28'
Hasan AlmuharramiCard upgrade
34'
J. Bångsbo← I. Tshibangu
38'
Joao PedroPenalty cancelled
45+3'
B. Faye← Y. Niakaté
52'
S. Sidibe
60'
L. Marković↳ A. Lusamba
65'
A. Pérez← Jung Seung-Hyun
65'
Caio Canedo← Salem Al Azizi
69'
A. Cissé← L. Marković
87'
João Pedro↳ Ali Saleh
89'
Rodrigo← Fábio Lima
90+3'
Joao Victor
90+3'
Fawaz Awana
90+3'
Suhail Ahmed Al Noobi
90'
Tahnoon Al Zaabi← S. Sidibe
90'
Jonatas Santos← Ali Saleh

Possession

72%Al-Wasl

Shots

24Al-Wasl

Pass accuracy

54%Al-Wasl

Statistics

Al-WaslBaniyas
Overview
72%Possession28%
24Total Shots5
10Corners2
5Fouls10
Shots
24Total Shots5
6On Target3
11Off Target1
7Blocked1
13Inside Box3
11Outside Box2
Passing
72%Possession28%
599Total Passes234
549Accurate Passes183
92%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
5Fouls10
0Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards2
3Offsides1

Match Recap: Al-Wasl FC vs Baniyas SC

Al-Wasl FC beat Baniyas SC 3-1 in League #301 on May 20, 2025.

Goals: João Victor (12' o.g.), S. Sidibe (52'), L. Marković (60'), João Pedro (87').

Al-Wasl FC controlled possession (72%) and registered 24 shots to 5.

The match was played at Zabeel Stadium in Dubai.