Bandırmaspor 4–0 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Adana Demirspor

M. Gumuskaya 86'

B. Messaoudi 58'

L. Bacuna 33'

Douglas Tanque 26'

8/23/2025

1. Lig · Round 3Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bandırmaspor75%

×Draw16%

Adana Demirspor9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.69

Bandırmaspor

2.40

Adana Demirspor

0.69

Bandırmaspor creates 248% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

0.42

0.96

allows per match

3.51

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.29

Adana Demirspor

0.42

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.96

Adana Demirspor

3.51

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.15scores more

Adana Demirspor-0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

91%

Bandırmaspor or Adana Demirspor

84%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

25%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

52%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

91%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

42%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

50%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

15%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

89%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.51 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.29 + Adana Demirspor defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.40

Adana Demirspor attack 0.42 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

75%

level

16%

Adana Demirspor scores more

9%

Bandırmaspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Gumuskaya

Bandırmaspor · M

9.0

Match Events

20'

Ali Arda Yildiz

26'

Douglas Tanque↳ M. Gumuskaya

33'

L. Bacuna↳ D. Ndongala

49'

Ali Fidan

58'

B. Messaoudi

61'

G. Tunc← B. Timur

70'

W. Samake← Douglas Tanque

79'

Wilson SamakéGoal cancelled

79'

C. Turkmen← R. Mulumba

79'

J. Topalli← B. Messaoudi

80'

E. Acar← D. Ndongala

86'

M. Gumuskaya↳ W. Samake

87'

E. Aydin← M. Albayrak

87'

M. Menemencioglu← S. Gulay

87'

K. Saygan← A. Yilmaz

88'

Wilson Samaké

90+3'

Jetmir TopalliGoal cancelled

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BandırmasporAdana

Overview

62%Possession38%

18Total Shots0

5Corners1

8Fouls7

Shots

18Total Shots0

7On Target0

6Off Target0

5Blocked0

13Inside Box0

5Outside Box0

Passing

62%Possession38%

459Total Passes280

402Accurate Passes217

88%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

0Saves2

Discipline

8Fouls7

1Yellow Cards2

6Offsides1