Adana Demirspor 1–4 Bandırmaspor: Result & Stats

Adana Demirspor

FT

1 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Bandırmaspor

Thiago Bezerra 14'

S. Çam 84'

A. Çiçek 76', 9'

D. Karakuş 17'

4/29/2017

1. Lig · Round 305 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Adana Demirspor36%

×Draw24%

Bandırmaspor41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adana DemirsporExpected goals in this matchBandırmaspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.64

Adana Demirspor

1.53

Bandırmaspor

1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 69 home / 112 away

1.74

creates per match

1.31

1.96

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Adana Demirspor

1.74

Bandırmaspor

1.31

allows per match

Adana Demirspor

1.96

Bandırmaspor

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adana Demirspor+0.00on par

Bandırmaspor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adana Demirspor ↓

Bandırmaspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Adana Demirspor or draw

59%

Adana Demirspor or Bandırmaspor

76%

Draw or Bandırmaspor

64%

Winning margin

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

17%

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

78%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

45%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

20%

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

81%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

49%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

47%

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adana Demirspor at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.96 · 69 matches

Bandırmaspor away — creates 1.31, concedes 1.32 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adana Demirspor attack 1.74 + Bandırmaspor defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.53

Bandırmaspor attack 1.31 + Adana Demirspor defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Adana Demirspor scores more

36%

level

24%

Bandırmaspor scores more

41%

Bandırmaspor at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

14'

17'

19'

43'

46'

57'

58'

65'

73'

76'

78'

84'

85'

88'

Ö. Çelik← Ö. Kandemir

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AdanaBandırmaspor

Overview

54%Possession46%

16Total Shots13

5Corners5

8Fouls20

Shots

16Total Shots13

6On Target6

10Off Target7

Passing

54%Possession46%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

8Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards0

3Offsides1

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Bandırmaspor

Bandırmaspor beat Adana Demirspor 4-1 in 1. Lig on April 29, 2017.

Goals: A. Çiçek (9', 76'), Thiago Bezerra (14'), D. Karakuş (17'), S. Çam (84').

Adana Demirspor controlled possession (54%) and registered 16 shots to 13.

The match was played at 5 Ocak Fatih Terim Stadyumu in Adana.

Adana Demirspor vs Bandırmaspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Statistics

Match Recap: Adana Demirspor vs Bandırmaspor