Bandırmaspor 0–3 Adana Demirspor: Result & Stats

Bandırmaspor

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Adana Demirspor

Mehmet Akyüz 59', 49', 12'

10/25/2020

1. Lig · Round 7Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Bandırmaspor75%

×Draw16%

Adana Demirspor9%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BandırmasporExpected goals in this matchAdana Demirspor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

0.69

Bandırmaspor

2.40

Adana Demirspor

0.69

Bandırmaspor creates 248% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 5 away

1.29

creates per match

0.42

0.96

allows per match

3.51

creates per match

Bandırmaspor

1.29

Adana Demirspor

0.42

allows per match

Bandırmaspor

0.96

Adana Demirspor

3.51

+0.15scores more than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

Bandırmaspor+0.15scores more

Adana Demirspor-0.02on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bandırmaspor ↓

Adana Demirspor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Bandırmaspor or draw

91%

Bandırmaspor or Adana Demirspor

84%

Draw or Adana Demirspor

25%

Winning margin

Bandırmaspor wins by 2+

52%

Adana Demirspor wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Bandırmaspor 1+ goals

91%

Bandırmaspor 2+ goals

69%

Bandırmaspor 3+ goals

42%

Adana Demirspor 1+ goals

50%

Adana Demirspor 2+ goals

15%

Adana Demirspor 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Bandırmaspor (draw refunded)

89%

Adana Demirspor (draw refunded)

11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bandırmaspor at home — creates 1.29, concedes 0.96 · 9 matches

Adana Demirspor away — creates 0.42, concedes 3.51 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bandırmaspor attack 1.29 + Adana Demirspor defence 3.51 → ÷2 → 2.40

Adana Demirspor attack 0.42 + Bandırmaspor defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Bandırmaspor scores more

75%

level

16%

Adana Demirspor scores more

9%

Bandırmaspor at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Bandırmaspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

Mehmet Akyüz

Adana Demirspor · F

9.2

Match Events

12'

Mehmet Akyüz↳ V. Şen

46'

S. Alibaz← H. Bilgiç

46'

S. Kurt← E. Zengin

49'

Mehmet Akyüz↳ S. Kurt

58'

A. Başaran← E. Halilović

59'

Mehmet Akyüz↳ V. Şen

65'

Joher Khadim Rassoul

70'

Anil Basaran

71'

Y. Akgün← Mehmet Akyüz

72'

75'

77'

85'

85'

89'

D. Lanzafame← P. Dibba

89'

İ. Çelik← G. İnler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BandırmasporAdana

Overview

52%Possession48%

14Total Shots7

9Corners3

19Fouls8

Shots

14Total Shots7

6On Target3

4Off Target2

4Blocked2

11Inside Box5

3Outside Box2

Passing

52%Possession48%

426Total Passes403

346Accurate Passes309

81%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

0Saves6

Discipline

19Fouls8

2Yellow Cards1

4Offsides0

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Adana Demirspor

Adana Demirspor beat Bandırmaspor 3-0 in 1. Lig on October 25, 2020.

Goals: Mehmet Akyüz (12', 49', 59').

Bandırmaspor controlled possession (52%) and registered 14 shots to 7.

The match was played at Bandırma 17 Eylül Stadı in Bandırma.

Bandırmaspor vs Adana Demirspor — 1. Lig 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Bandırmaspor vs Adana Demirspor