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Baltika vs Zenit Saint Petersburg — Premier League 2018

Baltika
Baltika
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Zenit Saint Petersburg
Zenit Saint Petersburg
11/4/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 14Rostec Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Baltika29%
×Draw28%
Zenit Saint Petersburg43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Baltika
1.02
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.30

Zenit Saint Petersburg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 120 away

creates per match

Baltika
1.27
Zenit Saint Petersburg
1.64

allows per match

Baltika
0.97
Zenit Saint Petersburg
0.78

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par
Zenit Saint Petersburg+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Zenit Saint Petersburg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Baltika or draw
57%
Baltika or Zenit Saint Petersburg
72%
Draw or Zenit Saint Petersburg
71%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+
11%
Zenit Saint Petersburg wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals
64%
Baltika 2+ goals
27%
Baltika 3+ goals
8%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 1+ goals
73%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 2+ goals
37%
Zenit Saint Petersburg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)
40%
Zenit Saint Petersburg (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.97 · 30 matches

Zenit Saint Petersburg away — creates 1.64, concedes 0.78 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.27 + Zenit Saint Petersburg defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 1.02

Zenit Saint Petersburg attack 1.64 + Baltika defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Baltika scores more
29%
level
28%
Zenit Saint Petersburg scores more
43%

Zenit Saint Petersburg at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Zenit Saint Petersburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Baltika vs Zenit Saint Petersburg

Zenit Saint Petersburg beat Baltika 2-0 in Premier League on November 4, 2023.

The match was played at Rostec Arena in Kaliningrad.