Baltika 0–1 Krylya Sovetov: Result & Stats

Baltika

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Krylya Sovetov

5/15/2021

First League · Round 42Stadion Kaliningrad

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Baltika33%

×Draw29%

Krylya Sovetov38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaltikaExpected goals in this matchKrylya Sovetov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

1.15

Baltika

1.05

Krylya Sovetov

1.15

Krylya Sovetov creates 10% more chances

Season form · 106 home / 22 away

1.25

creates per match

1.55

0.75

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Baltika

1.25

Krylya Sovetov

1.55

allows per match

Baltika

0.75

Krylya Sovetov

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baltika+0.00on par

Krylya Sovetov+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baltika ↓

Krylya Sovetov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baltika or draw

62%

Baltika or Krylya Sovetov

71%

Draw or Krylya Sovetov

67%

Winning margin

Baltika wins by 2+

13%

Krylya Sovetov wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Baltika 1+ goals

65%

Baltika 2+ goals

28%

Baltika 3+ goals

9%

Krylya Sovetov 1+ goals

68%

Krylya Sovetov 2+ goals

32%

Krylya Sovetov 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Baltika (draw refunded)

46%

Krylya Sovetov (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baltika at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.75 · 106 matches

Krylya Sovetov away — creates 1.55, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baltika attack 1.25 + Krylya Sovetov defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.05

Krylya Sovetov attack 1.55 + Baltika defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Baltika scores more

33%

level

29%

Krylya Sovetov scores more

38%

Krylya Sovetov at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Krylya Sovetov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff