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Ballyclare Comrades vs Loughgall — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Ballyclare Comrades
Ballyclare Comrades
FT
1 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Loughgall
Loughgall
R. McMenemy 36'
C. Murphy 80'
D. Stewart 66'
Unknown 46' (OG)
K. McLaughlin 30'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades20%
×Draw19%
Loughgall61%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ballyclare Comrades
1.33
Loughgall
2.42

Loughgall creates 82% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 4 away

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades
0.67
Loughgall
2.50

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades
2.33
Loughgall
2.00

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par
Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Loughgall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–27%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw
39%
Ballyclare Comrades or Loughgall
81%
Draw or Loughgall
80%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+
8%
Loughgall wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals
74%
Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals
38%
Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals
15%
Loughgall 1+ goals
91%
Loughgall 2+ goals
69%
Loughgall 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)
25%
Loughgall (draw refunded)
75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

Loughgall away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 0.67 + Loughgall defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Loughgall attack 2.50 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more
20%
level
19%
Loughgall scores more
61%

Loughgall at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'
K. McLaughlin
36'
R. McMenemy
46'
Own goal
66'
D. Stewart
80'
C. Murphy
Ballyclare
Loughgall
B. Baggley
Manager: B. Baggley
Darren Murphy
Manager: Darren Murphy

Match Recap: Ballyclare Comrades vs Loughgall

Loughgall beat Ballyclare Comrades 4-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: K. McLaughlin (30'), R. McMenemy (36'), ? (46' o.g.), D. Stewart (66'), C. Murphy (80').