Loughgall 2–2 Ballyclare Comrades: Result & Stats

Loughgall

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Ballyclare Comrades

T. Kelly 31'

P. Andrade 13'

G. Donnelly 86', 24'

4/29/2023

League #407 · Promotion Group - 5Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Loughgall43%

×Draw22%

Ballyclare Comrades35%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LoughgallExpected goals in this matchBallyclare Comrades

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

1.62

Loughgall

1.82

Ballyclare Comrades

1.62

Loughgall creates 12% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 19 away

1.80

creates per match

1.74

1.50

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Loughgall

1.80

Ballyclare Comrades

1.74

allows per match

Loughgall

1.50

Ballyclare Comrades

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Ballyclare Comrades →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw

65%

Loughgall or Ballyclare Comrades

78%

Draw or Ballyclare Comrades

57%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+

23%

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals

84%

Loughgall 2+ goals

54%

Loughgall 3+ goals

27%

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

80%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

48%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)

55%

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Ballyclare Comrades away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.80 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.82

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.74 + Loughgall defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Loughgall scores more

43%

level

22%

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

35%

Loughgall at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

P. Andrade

24'

G. Donnelly

31'

T. Kelly

86'

G. Donnelly

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff