Ballyclare Comrades 2–2 Loughgall: Result & Stats

Ballyclare Comrades

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Loughgall

B. Higgins 90+4'

D. Roohi 11'

A. Duke 55'

B. Murdock 34'

3/7/2023

League #407 · Round 30Dixon Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Ballyclare Comrades27%

×Draw23%

Loughgall50%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ballyclare ComradesExpected goals in this matchLoughgall

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.79

Ballyclare Comrades

1.27

Loughgall

1.79

Loughgall creates 41% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

1.44

creates per match

1.36

2.22

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Ballyclare Comrades

1.44

Loughgall

1.36

allows per match

Ballyclare Comrades

2.22

Loughgall

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ballyclare Comrades+0.00on par

Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ballyclare Comrades ↓

Loughgall →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Ballyclare Comrades or draw

50%

Ballyclare Comrades or Loughgall

77%

Draw or Loughgall

73%

Winning margin

Ballyclare Comrades wins by 2+

11%

Loughgall wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Ballyclare Comrades 1+ goals

72%

Ballyclare Comrades 2+ goals

36%

Ballyclare Comrades 3+ goals

14%

Loughgall 1+ goals

83%

Loughgall 2+ goals

53%

Loughgall 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Ballyclare Comrades (draw refunded)

35%

Loughgall (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ballyclare Comrades at home — creates 1.44, concedes 2.22 · 18 matches

Loughgall away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ballyclare Comrades attack 1.44 + Loughgall defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.27

Loughgall attack 1.36 + Ballyclare Comrades defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ballyclare Comrades scores more

27%

level

23%

Loughgall scores more

50%

Loughgall at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

D. Roohi

34'

B. Murdock

55'

A. Duke

90+4'

B. Higgins

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff