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Bahia vs America Mineiro — Serie A 2026

Bahia
Bahia
FT
3 – 4
HT: 1 – 2
America Mineiro
America Mineiro
6/30/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 8Estádio Governador Roberto Santos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

Bahia51%
×Draw26%
America Mineiro23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bahia
1.52
America Mineiro
0.92

Bahia creates 65% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 76 away

creates per match

Bahia
1.45
America Mineiro
0.87

allows per match

Bahia
0.97
America Mineiro
1.59

finishing

Bahia+0.00on par
America Mineiro+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bahia ↓

America Mineiro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Bahia or draw
77%
Bahia or America Mineiro
74%
Draw or America Mineiro
49%

Winning margin

Bahia wins by 2+
26%
America Mineiro wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Bahia 1+ goals
78%
Bahia 2+ goals
45%
Bahia 3+ goals
20%
America Mineiro 1+ goals
60%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
23%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Bahia (draw refunded)
69%
America Mineiro (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bahia at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.97 · 143 matches

America Mineiro away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.59 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bahia attack 1.45 + America Mineiro defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.52

America Mineiro attack 0.87 + Bahia defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Bahia scores more
51%
level
26%
America Mineiro scores more
23%

Bahia at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Bahia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Bahia 3–4 America Mineiro

America Mineiro beat Bahia 4-3 in Serie A on June 30, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos in Salvador de Bahia, Bahia.