America Mineiro 1–0 Bahia: Result & Stats | Serie A

America Mineiro

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Bahia

11/25/2018

Serie A · Round 37Arena Independência

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

America Mineiro44%

×Draw27%

Bahia29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

America MineiroExpected goals in this matchBahia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.06

America Mineiro

1.37

Bahia

1.06

America Mineiro creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 141 away

1.14

creates per match

1.00

1.11

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

America Mineiro

1.14

Bahia

1.00

allows per match

America Mineiro

1.11

Bahia

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par

Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Bahia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw

71%

America Mineiro or Bahia

73%

Draw or Bahia

56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+

21%

Bahia wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals

75%

America Mineiro 2+ goals

40%

America Mineiro 3+ goals

16%

Bahia 1+ goals

65%

Bahia 2+ goals

29%

Bahia 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)

60%

Bahia (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

Bahia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.14 + Bahia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bahia attack 1.00 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more

44%

level

27%

Bahia scores more

29%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff