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America Mineiro vs Bahia — Serie A 2026

America Mineiro
America Mineiro
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Bahia
Bahia
12/3/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 37Estádio Raimundo Sampaio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 76+ matches

America Mineiro44%
×Draw27%
Bahia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

America Mineiro
1.37
Bahia
1.06

America Mineiro creates 29% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 141 away

creates per match

America Mineiro
1.14
Bahia
1.00

allows per match

America Mineiro
1.11
Bahia
1.60

finishing

America Mineiro+0.00on par
Bahia+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

America Mineiro ↓

Bahia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

America Mineiro or draw
71%
America Mineiro or Bahia
73%
Draw or Bahia
56%

Winning margin

America Mineiro wins by 2+
21%
Bahia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

America Mineiro 1+ goals
75%
America Mineiro 2+ goals
40%
America Mineiro 3+ goals
16%
Bahia 1+ goals
65%
Bahia 2+ goals
29%
Bahia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

America Mineiro (draw refunded)
60%
Bahia (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

America Mineiro at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.11 · 76 matches

Bahia away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.60 · 141 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

America Mineiro attack 1.14 + Bahia defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.37

Bahia attack 1.00 + America Mineiro defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

America Mineiro scores more
44%
level
27%
Bahia scores more
29%

America Mineiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "America Mineiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: America Mineiro vs Bahia

America Mineiro beat Bahia 3-2 in Serie A on December 3, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Raimundo Sampaio in Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais.