Baghdad 0–1 Al-Qasim: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Baghdad

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Al-Qasim

Ayman Rzaj 46' (OG)

10/26/2023

Iraqi League · Round 1Amanat Baghdad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Baghdad40%

×Draw29%

Al-Qasim31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BaghdadExpected goals in this matchAl-Qasim

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.99

Baghdad

1.18

Al-Qasim

0.99

Baghdad creates 19% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 109 away

0.88

creates per match

0.85

1.13

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Baghdad

0.88

Al-Qasim

0.85

allows per match

Baghdad

1.13

Al-Qasim

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Baghdad+0.00on par

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Baghdad ↓

Al-Qasim →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Baghdad or draw

69%

Baghdad or Al-Qasim

71%

Draw or Al-Qasim

60%

Winning margin

Baghdad wins by 2+

17%

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Baghdad 1+ goals

69%

Baghdad 2+ goals

33%

Baghdad 3+ goals

12%

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

63%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

26%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Baghdad (draw refunded)

57%

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Baghdad at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

Al-Qasim away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.48 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Baghdad attack 0.88 + Al-Qasim defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.18

Al-Qasim attack 0.85 + Baghdad defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Baghdad scores more

40%

level

29%

Al-Qasim scores more

31%

Baghdad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Ayman RzajOwn goal

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff