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Al-Qasim vs Baghdad — Iraqi League 2020

Al-Qasim
Al-Qasim
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Baghdad
Baghdad
Saif Rashed Hameed 90+2'
Khaldoun Ibrahim 75' (OG)
6/18/2024Iraqi LeagueIraqi League · Round 33Al Kut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Al-Qasim38%
×Draw28%
Baghdad35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Al-Qasim
1.22
Baghdad
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 108 home / 78 away

creates per match

Al-Qasim
0.98
Baghdad
0.91

allows per match

Al-Qasim
1.40
Baghdad
1.46

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par
Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Baghdad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw
65%
Al-Qasim or Baghdad
72%
Draw or Baghdad
62%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+
16%
Baghdad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals
70%
Al-Qasim 2+ goals
34%
Al-Qasim 3+ goals
12%
Baghdad 1+ goals
69%
Baghdad 2+ goals
32%
Baghdad 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)
52%
Baghdad (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.40 · 108 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.46 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.98 + Baghdad defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.22

Baghdad attack 0.91 + Al-Qasim defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Al-Qasim scores more
38%
level
28%
Baghdad scores more
35%

Al-Qasim at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Al-Qasim will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

75'
Khaldoun IbrahimOwn goal
90+2'
Saif Rashed Hameed

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Iraqi League: Al-Qasim 2–0 Baghdad

Al-Qasim beat Baghdad 2-0 in Iraqi League on June 18, 2024.

Goals: Khaldoun Ibrahim (75' o.g.), Saif Rashed Hameed (90+2').

The match was played at Al Kut Stadium in Al Kut.