Al-Qasim 0–1 Baghdad: Result & Stats | Iraqi League

Al-Qasim

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Baghdad

Pneu Flavio 79'

9/26/2025

Iraqi League · Round 3Al-Najaf International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Al-Qasim33%

×Draw26%

Baghdad41%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Al-QasimExpected goals in this matchBaghdad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.43

Al-Qasim

1.27

Baghdad

1.43

Baghdad creates 13% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 40 away

0.78

creates per match

0.93

1.93

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Al-Qasim

0.78

Baghdad

0.93

allows per match

Al-Qasim

1.93

Baghdad

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Al-Qasim+0.00on par

Baghdad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Al-Qasim ↓

Baghdad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Al-Qasim or draw

59%

Al-Qasim or Baghdad

74%

Draw or Baghdad

67%

Winning margin

Al-Qasim wins by 2+

14%

Baghdad wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Al-Qasim 1+ goals

72%

Al-Qasim 2+ goals

36%

Al-Qasim 3+ goals

14%

Baghdad 1+ goals

76%

Baghdad 2+ goals

42%

Baghdad 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Al-Qasim (draw refunded)

45%

Baghdad (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Al-Qasim at home — creates 0.78, concedes 1.93 · 40 matches

Baghdad away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.77 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Al-Qasim attack 0.78 + Baghdad defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.27

Baghdad attack 0.93 + Al-Qasim defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Al-Qasim scores more

33%

level

26%

Baghdad scores more

41%

Baghdad at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Baghdad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

79'

Pneu Flavio

84'

H. Abdulwahid

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff