Ayacucho FC 3–2 Alianza Universidad: Result & Stats

Ayacucho FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

Alianza Universidad

E. M. Perez Azambuya 54'

J. Lucumi 26'

M. Ferreira 4'

C. Ramos 67'

R. Campodonico 24'

2/17/2025

Primera División · Apertura - 2Estadio Ciudad de Cumana

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 62+ matches

Ayacucho FC50%

×Draw24%

Alianza Universidad26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ayacucho FCExpected goals in this matchAlianza Universidad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.13

Ayacucho FC

1.67

Alianza Universidad

1.13

Ayacucho FC creates 48% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 62 away

1.54

creates per match

1.02

1.24

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Ayacucho FC

1.54

Alianza Universidad

1.02

allows per match

Ayacucho FC

1.24

Alianza Universidad

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ayacucho FC ↓

Alianza Universidad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Ayacucho FC or draw

74%

Ayacucho FC or Alianza Universidad

76%

Draw or Alianza Universidad

50%

Winning margin

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

27%

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

81%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

50%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

23%

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

68%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

31%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

66%

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ayacucho FC at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.24 · 100 matches

Alianza Universidad away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.79 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ayacucho FC attack 1.54 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Alianza Universidad attack 1.02 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Ayacucho FC scores more

50%

level

24%

Alianza Universidad scores more

26%

Ayacucho FC at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Ayacucho FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

77

J. Lucumi

Ayacucho FC · M

8.7

Match Events

4'

M. Ferreira↳ J. Lucumi

24'

R. Campodonico↳ B. Guevara

26'

J. Lucumi↳ M. Ferreira

46'

J. Villamarin← M. Ferreira

54'

E. M. Perez Azambuya↳ J. Lucumi

67'

C. Ramos↳ M. Lliuya

70'

G. Pereira← F. Leguia

71'

K. Barrios← J. Vilchez

82'

Maximiliano Perez

82'

D. Ramirez← E. M. Perez Azambuya

85'

Alonso Tamaríz

87'

E. Oliva← J. Sernaque

88'

D. Caro← J. Lucumi

88'

R. Gomez← C. Ramos

88'

A. Aoki← E. O. Vasquez Ortega

90+1'

Kenji Barrios

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AyacuchoAlianza

Overview

23%Possession77%

10Total Shots9

1Corners8

15Fouls3

Shots

10Total Shots9

3On Target4

6Off Target3

1Blocked2

6Inside Box6

4Outside Box3

Passing

23%Possession77%

206Total Passes686

158Accurate Passes637

77%Pass Accuracy93%

Goalkeeping

2Saves0

Discipline

15Fouls3

3Yellow Cards0

2Offsides0