Alianza Universidad 3–2 Ayacucho FC: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Ayacucho FC

L. Pajoy 90+7'

C. Monsalvo 27'

R. Campodónico 7'

M. Ríos 67'

S. Barboza 51'

7/30/2023

Segunda División · Round 17Estadio Heraclio Tapia León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Alianza Universidad55%

×Draw22%

Ayacucho FC23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.20

Alianza Universidad

1.98

Ayacucho FC

1.20

Alianza Universidad creates 65% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 29 away

2.09

creates per match

1.45

0.95

allows per match

1.86

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

2.09

Ayacucho FC

1.45

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

0.95

Ayacucho FC

1.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

77%

Alianza Universidad or Ayacucho FC

78%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

45%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

32%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

86%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

59%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

31%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

70%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

34%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

71%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.95 · 43 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 2.09 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Ayacucho FC attack 1.45 + Alianza Universidad defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

55%

level

22%

Ayacucho FC scores more

23%

Alianza Universidad at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

R. Campodónico

27'

C. Monsalvo

30'

F. Gómez← Y. Quintanilla

30'

Keziel Santos← R. Vega

40'

M. Rios

42'

B. Guevara

46'

B. Molina← G. Loayza

51'

S. Barboza

65'

L. Pajoy← C. Monsalvo

65'

R. Tito← F. Espinoza

67'

M. Ríos

77'

J. Deza← R. Campodónico

79'

R. Meza← G. Sánchez

83'

J. Bustamante← S. Barboza

89'

89'

90+3'

90+7'

Alianza

Ayacucho

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Monsalvo

Manager: P. Cominges

65'▲L. Pajoy←▼C. Monsalvo

65'▲R. Tito←▼F. Espinoza

77'▲J. Deza←▼R. Campodónico

Alianza Universidad substitutes

PajoyTitoDezaLauraFigueroaÁivarCámara

Manager: S. Castellanos

30'▲F. Gómez←▼Y. Quintanilla

30'▲Keziel Santos←▼R. Vega

46'▲B. Molina←▼G. Loayza

79'▲R. Meza←▼G. Sánchez

83'▲J. Bustamante←▼S. Barboza

Ayacucho FC substitutes

GómezSantosMolinaMezaBustamanteMayta

Segunda División: Alianza Universidad 3–2 Ayacucho FC

Alianza Universidad beat Ayacucho FC 3-2 in Segunda División on July 30, 2023.

Goals: R. Campodónico (7'), C. Monsalvo (27'), S. Barboza (51'), M. Ríos (67'), L. Pajoy (90+7').

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia León in Huánuco.

Alianza Universidad vs Ayacucho FC — Segunda División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Segunda División: Alianza Universidad 3–2 Ayacucho FC