Alianza Universidad 1–2 Ayacucho FC: Result & Stats

Alianza Universidad

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Ayacucho FC

J. Escobar 34'

E. M. Perez Azambuya 78'

J. Bilbao 73'

7/26/2025

Primera División · Clausura - 2Estadio Heraclio Tapia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 61+ matches

Alianza Universidad43%

×Draw26%

Ayacucho FC30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Alianza UniversidadExpected goals in this matchAyacucho FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.14

Alianza Universidad

1.41

Ayacucho FC

1.14

Alianza Universidad creates 24% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 104 away

1.07

creates per match

1.06

1.21

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Alianza Universidad

1.07

Ayacucho FC

1.06

allows per match

Alianza Universidad

1.21

Ayacucho FC

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Alianza Universidad+0.00on par

Ayacucho FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Alianza Universidad ↓

Ayacucho FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Alianza Universidad or draw

70%

Alianza Universidad or Ayacucho FC

74%

Draw or Ayacucho FC

57%

Winning margin

Alianza Universidad wins by 2+

21%

Ayacucho FC wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Alianza Universidad 1+ goals

76%

Alianza Universidad 2+ goals

41%

Alianza Universidad 3+ goals

17%

Ayacucho FC 1+ goals

68%

Ayacucho FC 2+ goals

32%

Ayacucho FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Alianza Universidad (draw refunded)

59%

Ayacucho FC (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Alianza Universidad at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.21 · 61 matches

Ayacucho FC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.74 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Alianza Universidad attack 1.07 + Ayacucho FC defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.41

Ayacucho FC attack 1.06 + Alianza Universidad defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Alianza Universidad scores more

43%

level

26%

Ayacucho FC scores more

30%

Alianza Universidad at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Alianza Universidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

29

J. Escobar

Alianza Universidad · F

7.7

Match Events

-5'

-5'

16'

18'

26'

34'

39'

41'

46'

M. Lliuya← N. Ramirez

46'

J. Lucumi← G. Loayza

46'

A. Yovera← J. Ataupillco

55'

Yorleys Mena

61'

A. de la Cruz← J. Vilchez

66'

D. Martinez← J. Escobar

73'

J. Bilbao↳ A. Yovera

78'

E. M. Perez Azambuya↳ H. Arakaki

80'

Hideyoshi ArakakiGoal confirmed

81'

C. Ascues← J. J. Canela Torres

81'

D. Saffadi← A. Ampuero

83'

86'

90+8'

90+11'

90+3'

Diego MartínezPenalty confirmed

90+16'

Derlis Orue

90+7'

J. Barco← J. Ibarguen

90+5'

C. A. Correa Flores←

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AlianzaAyacucho

Overview

57%Possession43%

12Total Shots12

2.47Expected Goals (xG)0.77

8Corners4

15Fouls20

Shots

12Total Shots12

4On Target4

7Off Target7

1Blocked1

9Inside Box6

3Outside Box6

Passing

57%Possession43%

355Total Passes271

292Accurate Passes201

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

15Fouls20

5Yellow Cards5

1Red Cards0

1Offsides4

Primera División: Alianza Universidad 1–2 Ayacucho FC

Ayacucho FC beat Alianza Universidad 2-1 in Primera División on July 26, 2025.

Goals: J. Escobar (34'), J. Bilbao (73'), E. M. Perez Azambuya (78').

Alianza Universidad controlled possession (57%) and registered 12 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estadio Heraclio Tapia in Huanuco.

Alianza Universidad vs Ayacucho FC — Primera División 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Primera División: Alianza Universidad 1–2 Ayacucho FC