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Avangard Kursk vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
10/21/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 15Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Avangard Kursk41%
×Draw24%
Metallurg Lipetsk34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.56
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.40

Avangard Kursk creates 11% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.17

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
1.63
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.50

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
66%
Avangard Kursk or Metallurg Lipetsk
76%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
59%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
20%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
79%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
46%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
21%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
75%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
41%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
55%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.63 · 16 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.63 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.17 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
41%
level
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
34%

Avangard Kursk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Avangard Kursk vs Metallurg Lipetsk

Metallurg Lipetsk beat Avangard Kursk 2-1 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Trudovye Reservy in Kursk.