Avangard Kursk 3–3 Metallurg Lipetsk

Avangard Kursk

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Metallurg Lipetsk

9/22/2022

Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 12Stadion Trudovye Reservy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Avangard Kursk41%

×Draw26%

Metallurg Lipetsk33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Avangard KurskExpected goals in this matchMetallurg Lipetsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.23

Avangard Kursk

1.42

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.23

Avangard Kursk creates 15% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 53 away

1.50

creates per match

1.45

1.02

allows per match

1.34

creates per match

Avangard Kursk

1.50

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.45

allows per match

Avangard Kursk

1.02

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.34

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw

67%

Avangard Kursk or Metallurg Lipetsk

74%

Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk

59%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+

20%

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals

76%

Avangard Kursk 2+ goals

41%

Avangard Kursk 3+ goals

17%

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

71%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

35%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)

56%

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.02 · 54 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 1.50 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.42

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Avangard Kursk defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more

41%

level

26%

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

33%

Avangard Kursk at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff