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Avangard Kursk vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Avangard Kursk
Avangard Kursk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
3/24/2023Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Avangard Kursk55%
×Draw33%
Metallurg Lipetsk12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Avangard Kursk
1.13
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.38

Avangard Kursk creates 197% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Avangard Kursk
0.25
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00

allows per match

Avangard Kursk
0.75
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00

finishing

Avangard Kursk+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

79%No
  • No79
  • Yes21

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avangard Kursk ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–022%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–025%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–15%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (25%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
78%22%1.5
45%55%2.5
19%81%3.5
7%93%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Avangard Kursk or draw
88%
Avangard Kursk or Metallurg Lipetsk
67%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
45%

Winning margin

Avangard Kursk wins by 2+
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Avangard Kursk 1+ goals
68%
Avangard Kursk 2+ goals
31%
Avangard Kursk 3+ goals
11%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
6%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Avangard Kursk (draw refunded)
82%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
12%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avangard Kursk at home — creates 0.25, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avangard Kursk attack 0.25 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.13

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 0.00 + Avangard Kursk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Avangard Kursk scores more
55%
level
33%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
12%

Avangard Kursk at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Avangard Kursk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Avangard Kursk 0–0 Metallurg Lipetsk

Avangard Kursk and Metallurg Lipetsk drew 0-0 in Friendlies Clubs on March 24, 2023.