Avai 2–0 Ceara: Result & Stats | Serie A

Avai

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ceara

Sarará 90+1'

Natanael 49'

11/8/2022

Serie A · Round 37Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 105+ matches

Avai42%

×Draw27%

Ceara31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchCeara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.32

1.09

Avai

1.32

Ceara

1.09

Avai creates 21% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 134 away

1.27

creates per match

0.89

1.30

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Avai

1.27

Ceara

0.89

allows per match

Avai

1.30

Ceara

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Avai+0.00on par

Ceara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Ceara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Avai or draw

69%

Avai or Ceara

73%

Draw or Ceara

58%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

19%

Ceara wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

73%

Avai 2+ goals

38%

Avai 3+ goals

15%

Ceara 1+ goals

66%

Ceara 2+ goals

30%

Ceara 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

58%

Ceara (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Ceara away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.37 · 134 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.27 + Ceara defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.32

Ceara attack 0.89 + Avai defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Avai scores more

42%

level

27%

Ceara scores more

31%

Avai at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

Natanael

Avai · D

8.9

Match Events

20'

23'

37'

37'

47'

49'

Natanael↳ Eduardo

51'

Richard Coelho

61'

Luiz OtávioPenalty confirmed

63'

Cleber← Richard Cândido

69'

Jean Cleber← Bruno Silva

69'

Lucas Silva← Marcinho

76'

Richardson

80'

Erick← Richardson

81'

David Loiola

86'

Sarará← Eduardo

89'

Erick

90+2'

Sarará

90+2'

Muriqui← Vitinho

90+3'

Gaspar← Pablo Dyego

90+1'

Sarará↳ Natanael

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiCeara

Overview

41%Possession59%

14Total Shots15

6Corners6

17Fouls21

Shots

14Total Shots15

3On Target3

7Off Target9

4Blocked3

7Inside Box11

7Outside Box4

Passing

41%Possession59%

300Total Passes429

238Accurate Passes363

79%Pass Accuracy85%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls21

4Yellow Cards5

2Offsides1

Avai 2 – 0 Ceara

Avai beat Ceara 2-0 in Serie A on November 8, 2022.

Goals: Natanael (49'), Sarará (90+1').

Ceara controlled possession (59%) and registered 15 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Ceara — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Avai 2 – 0 Ceara