Avai 0–0 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Avai

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Atletico Goianiense

5/10/2025

Serie B · Round 7Ressacada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Avai46%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Avai

1.45

Atletico Goianiense

1.07

Avai creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

1.34

creates per match

1.23

0.91

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avai or draw

72%

Avai or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

54%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

22%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

77%

Avai 2+ goals

42%

Avai 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.23 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avai scores more

46%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

28%

Avai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

Alix Vinicius

Atletico Goianiense · D

7.9

Match Events

10'

João Vitor

10'

William Pottker

49'

Alef Manga

61'

Hygor← Alef Manga

65'

Leo Naldi← Willian Maranhao

65'

A. Cruz← Willian Pottker

70'

F. Martinez← Sandro Lima

73'

Gaspar← JP

80'

Alejo Cruz

82'

Mendes← Cleber

82'

Thayllon← Joao Vitor

85'

Heron← Conrado

85'

Kauan Rodrigues← Robert Conceicao

90'

Marquinhos Gabriel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiAtletico

Overview

55%Possession45%

15Total Shots9

6Corners4

14Fouls8

Shots

15Total Shots9

5On Target2

7Off Target5

3Blocked2

8Inside Box3

7Outside Box6

Passing

55%Possession45%

448Total Passes371

343Accurate Passes266

77%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

14Fouls8

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides2