Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Avai: Result & Stats

Atletico Goianiense

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Avai

Lele 81', 33'

Marcos Vinicius 26'

9/16/2025

Serie B · Round 26Estadio Serra Dourada

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Atletico Goianiense49%

×Draw26%

Avai25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico GoianienseExpected goals in this matchAvai

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.98

Atletico Goianiense

1.48

Avai

0.98

Atletico Goianiense creates 51% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 20 away

1.60

creates per match

1.04

0.91

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Atletico Goianiense

1.60

Avai

1.04

allows per match

Atletico Goianiense

0.91

Avai

1.35

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

Atletico Goianiense-0.29scores less

Avai-0.14scores less

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Goianiense ↓

Avai →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Goianiense or draw

75%

Atletico Goianiense or Avai

74%

Draw or Avai

51%

Winning margin

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

24%

Avai wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

19%

Avai 1+ goals

62%

Avai 2+ goals

26%

Avai 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

66%

Avai (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Goianiense at home — creates 1.60, concedes 0.91 · 16 matches

Avai away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.35 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.60 + Avai defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.48

Avai attack 1.04 + Atletico Goianiense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Atletico Goianiense scores more

49%

level

26%

Avai scores more

25%

Atletico Goianiense at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Atletico Goianiense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

Lele

Atletico Goianiense · F

8.9

Match Events

5'

Jonathan Costa

13'

Luizão

26'

Marcos Vinicius↳ Jonathan Costa

33'

Lele↳ F. Martinez

42'

Jonathan Costa

42'

Jonathan Costa

46'

Danielzinho← Luizao

46'

Leo Reis← JP

51'

Emerson Ramon

56'

Railan← Emerson Negueba

62'

Kelvin← Dudu Marques

65'

Robert Santos

69'

Radsley← Robert Conceicao

69'

Jean Dias← Yuri Alves

70'

Guilherme Romão

71'

Hygor← Cleber

74'

Maranhao← F. Martinez

77'

Weverton← Eduardo Brock

77'

Lucas Eduardo← Joao Vitor

78'

César

81'

Lele↳ Guilherme Romao

84'

Marcos Vinícius

87'

Radsley

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAvai

Overview

71%Possession29%

24Total Shots4

5Corners1

13Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots4

9On Target1

9Off Target3

6Blocked0

11Inside Box3

13Outside Box1

Passing

71%Possession29%

424Total Passes179

373Accurate Passes124

88%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

0Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls12

4Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

0Offsides1

Serie B: Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Avai

Atletico Goianiense beat Avai 2-1 in Serie B on September 16, 2025.

Goals: Marcos Vinicius (26'), Lele (33', 81').

Atletico Goianiense controlled possession (71%) and registered 24 shots to 4.

The match was played at Estadio Serra Dourada in Goiânia, Goiás.

Atletico Goianiense vs Avai — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Atletico Goianiense 2–1 Avai