Avai 0–2 Atletico Goianiense: Result & Stats

Avai

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Atletico Goianiense

0 Matheus Peixoto 90+10' (pen)

Luiz Fernando 38'

9/2/2023

Serie B · Round 26Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Avai46%

×Draw26%

Atletico Goianiense28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AvaiExpected goals in this matchAtletico Goianiense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.07

Avai

1.45

Atletico Goianiense

1.07

Avai creates 36% more chances

Season form · 21 home / 15 away

1.34

creates per match

1.23

0.91

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Avai

1.34

Atletico Goianiense

1.23

allows per match

Avai

0.91

Atletico Goianiense

1.56

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Avai-0.10scores less

Atletico Goianiense-0.30scores less

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Avai ↓

Atletico Goianiense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Avai or draw

72%

Avai or Atletico Goianiense

74%

Draw or Atletico Goianiense

54%

Winning margin

Avai wins by 2+

22%

Atletico Goianiense wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Avai 1+ goals

77%

Avai 2+ goals

42%

Avai 3+ goals

18%

Atletico Goianiense 1+ goals

66%

Atletico Goianiense 2+ goals

29%

Atletico Goianiense 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Avai (draw refunded)

62%

Atletico Goianiense (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Avai at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.91 · 21 matches

Atletico Goianiense away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Avai attack 1.34 + Atletico Goianiense defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.45

Atletico Goianiense attack 1.23 + Avai defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Avai scores more

46%

level

26%

Atletico Goianiense scores more

28%

Avai at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Avai will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Luiz Fernando

Atletico Goianiense · M

7.5

Match Events

26'

32'

34'

38'

45'

46'

Gabriel Poveda← Felipinho

50'

Renato← Shaylon

60'

Denílson

62'

Heron

63'

Thales Oleques← Igor Inocêncio

63'

Edinho← Eduardo

66'

Renato

78'

Leandro Carvalho← Rafael Gava

78'

Denilson← William Pottker

78'

Alix← Kelvin

84'

Alix Vinicius

88'

Alan Costa

90+8'

Bruno Cortez

90+8'

Matheus PeixotoPenalty confirmed

90'

Matheus Peixoto← Gustavo Coutinho

90+10'

0 Matheus PeixotoPenalty

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AvaiAtletico

Overview

65%Possession35%

11Total Shots12

7Corners4

13Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots12

1On Target3

9Off Target8

1Blocked1

8Inside Box9

3Outside Box3

Passing

65%Possession35%

483Total Passes255

397Accurate Passes180

82%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

13Fouls13

5Yellow Cards4

1Red Cards0

2Offsides1

Match Recap: Avai vs Atletico Goianiense

Atletico Goianiense beat Avai 2-0 in Serie B on September 2, 2023.

Goals: Luiz Fernando (38'), 0 Matheus Peixoto (90+10' pen).

Avai controlled possession (65%) and registered 11 shots to 12.

The match was played at Estádio Aderbal Ramos da Silva in Florianópolis, Santa Catarina.

Avai vs Atletico Goianiense — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Avai vs Atletico Goianiense