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Auersmacher vs TuS Koblenz — Oberliga - Promotion Round 2022

Auersmacher
Auersmacher
FT
1 – 1
TuS Koblenz
TuS Koblenz
4/8/2023Oberliga - Promotion RoundOberliga - Promotion Round · Rh/Pf/S - Promotion Round - 3Saar-Blies-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Auersmacher34%
×Draw24%
TuS Koblenz41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Auersmacher
1.40
TuS Koblenz
1.56

TuS Koblenz creates 11% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

creates per match

Auersmacher
1.80
TuS Koblenz
1.33

allows per match

Auersmacher
1.80
TuS Koblenz
1.00

finishing

Auersmacher+0.00on par
TuS Koblenz+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Auersmacher ↓

TuS Koblenz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Auersmacher or draw
59%
Auersmacher or TuS Koblenz
76%
Draw or TuS Koblenz
66%

Winning margin

Auersmacher wins by 2+
16%
TuS Koblenz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Auersmacher 1+ goals
75%
Auersmacher 2+ goals
41%
Auersmacher 3+ goals
17%
TuS Koblenz 1+ goals
79%
TuS Koblenz 2+ goals
46%
TuS Koblenz 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Auersmacher (draw refunded)
45%
TuS Koblenz (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Auersmacher at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

TuS Koblenz away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Auersmacher attack 1.80 + TuS Koblenz defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.40

TuS Koblenz attack 1.33 + Auersmacher defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Auersmacher scores more
34%
level
24%
TuS Koblenz scores more
41%

TuS Koblenz at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "TuS Koblenz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Auersmacher vs TuS Koblenz

Auersmacher and TuS Koblenz drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Promotion Round on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Saar-Blies-Stadion in Kleinblittersdorf.