Aucas 1–4 Deportivo Cuenca: Result & Stats

Aucas

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 3

Deportivo Cuenca

J. González 90'

P. Magnín 69'

V. Branda 43'

L. Mancinelli 39'

S. Mina 19'

9/29/2024

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Aucas48%

×Draw26%

Deportivo Cuenca26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Cuenca

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.99

Aucas

1.46

Deportivo Cuenca

0.99

Aucas creates 47% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 5 away

1.36

creates per match

1.29

0.70

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Aucas

1.36

Deportivo Cuenca

1.29

allows per match

Aucas

0.70

Deportivo Cuenca

1.56

+1.14scores more than expected

finishing

+0.11scores more than expected

finishing

Aucas+1.14scores more

Deportivo Cuenca+0.11scores more

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Deportivo Cuenca →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

74%

Aucas or Deportivo Cuenca

74%

Draw or Deportivo Cuenca

52%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

24%

Deportivo Cuenca wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

77%

Aucas 2+ goals

43%

Aucas 3+ goals

18%

Deportivo Cuenca 1+ goals

63%

Deportivo Cuenca 2+ goals

26%

Deportivo Cuenca 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

65%

Deportivo Cuenca (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.36, concedes 0.70 · 8 matches

Deportivo Cuenca away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.56 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.36 + Deportivo Cuenca defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.46

Deportivo Cuenca attack 1.29 + Aucas defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Aucas scores more

48%

level

26%

Deportivo Cuenca scores more

26%

Aucas at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

D. Luna

Deportivo Cuenca · M

8.3

Match Events

19'

S. Mina↳ D. Luna

28'

Kliver Moreno

39'

P. Guzmán← E. Caicedo

39'

L. Mancinelli↳ M. Piedra

43'

V. Branda↳ D. Luna

45+1'

Michael Carcelén

45+1'

Danny Luna

60'

R. Briones← R. Jaramillo

60'

66'

69'

74'

74'

F. Callejo← J. Blanco

74'

C. Zambrano← M. Carcelén

75'

W. Chalá← D. Luna

75'

N. Dávila← M. Piedra

80'

B. Corozo← K. Moreno

81'

R. Becerra← L. Mancinelli

90'

J. González

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AucasDeportivo

Overview

61%Possession39%

23Total Shots7

16Corners4

9Fouls6

Shots

23Total Shots7

6On Target5

12Off Target1

5Blocked1

13Inside Box4

10Outside Box3

Passing

61%Possession39%

339Total Passes229

285Accurate Passes157

84%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

9Fouls6

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0