Atletico Paranaense 1–0 Atletico-MG: Result & Stats

Atletico Paranaense

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atletico-MG

T. Cuello 28'

11/16/2024

Serie A · Round 19Ligga Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 33+ matches

Atletico Paranaense50%

×Draw26%

Atletico-MG24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atletico ParanaenseExpected goals in this matchAtletico-MG

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

0.93

Atletico Paranaense

1.48

Atletico-MG

0.93

Atletico Paranaense creates 59% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 34 away

1.62

creates per match

0.95

0.91

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Atletico Paranaense

1.62

Atletico-MG

0.95

allows per match

Atletico Paranaense

0.91

Atletico-MG

1.33

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

Atletico Paranaense-0.04on par

Atletico-MG-0.07on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atletico Paranaense ↓

Atletico-MG →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atletico Paranaense or draw

76%

Atletico Paranaense or Atletico-MG

74%

Draw or Atletico-MG

50%

Winning margin

Atletico Paranaense wins by 2+

25%

Atletico-MG wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Atletico Paranaense 1+ goals

77%

Atletico Paranaense 2+ goals

43%

Atletico Paranaense 3+ goals

19%

Atletico-MG 1+ goals

61%

Atletico-MG 2+ goals

24%

Atletico-MG 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Atletico Paranaense (draw refunded)

68%

Atletico-MG (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atletico Paranaense at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.91 · 33 matches

Atletico-MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.33 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atletico Paranaense attack 1.62 + Atletico-MG defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.48

Atletico-MG attack 0.95 + Atletico Paranaense defence 0.91 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Atletico Paranaense scores more

50%

level

26%

Atletico-MG scores more

24%

Atletico Paranaense at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Atletico Paranaense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

T. Cuello

Atletico Paranaense · M

8.2

Match Events

18'

25'

27'

28'

46'

Alisson← Rubens

46'

Paulinho← Otávio

59'

61'

61'

71'

82'

Fernando← Pablo

82'

Fernandinho← Erick

83'

Alan Kardec← Deyverson

90+1'

Christian← Nikão

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

AtleticoAtletico-MG

Overview

30%Possession70%

17Total Shots13

1.46Expected Goals (xG)0.42

4Corners3

11Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots13

5On Target3

10Off Target7

2Blocked3

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box9

Passing

30%Possession70%

256Total Passes591

184Accurate Passes508

72%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.27Goals Prevented0.27

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1